It probably seems to most of you that I am showing a rather unusual and unhealthy interest in the forthcoming US Presidential Elections, and to a certain degree I suppose that is true, after all I cannot actually vote for anyone. However, this being 2008, and the USA being the world superpower that it is, there is little to stop me sharing my views on what essentially could prove to be the most important election in recent history. Of course it could be argued that either of the last two could carry that title, with Al Gore inexplicably losing to Bush in 2000 and Kerry doing likewise in 2004. However, that, as they say, is history, and therefore not worth dwelling on here.
So, today Barak Obama was officially confirmed as the democratic candidate, joining his republican counterpart John McCain in the race for the Whitehouse. And, as the title suggests, there are a little over two months left until voting day. What can we expect in the meantime? Well, no doubt a good deal of mudslinging from both sides, McCain and his team trying to point out Obama’s lack of experience, his flip-flopping during the primaries on key issues and ultimately the fact that he didn’t win the Democratic nomination until very late in proceedings, which although in itself is neither here nor there, it does suggest he is only barely the favourite among his own party. And from Obama’s side there will be plenty of suggestions that McCain is too old for the job, too out of touch with the modern electorate and like the man he hopes to succeed his grasp of the economy is feeble at best.
But strangely for a political contest one thing we won’t hear much about is policies. In the UK the main parties publish their election manifestos ahead of time to give people, in theory at least, a chance to make an informed choice. As I have previously mentioned on these pages they rarely stick to these promises anyway, so in many respects the point is moot. However, the absence of true political debate is highly indicative of the current state of world politics.
Essentially, the two candidates will fight for the Presidency over policy details rather than actual policies. The reason is that the election in the US, as with the election in the UK, will be won and lost in the centre ground. Gone are the days of left leaning socialists or hard line right wingers, politics today is a game of popularism, appealing to the most people while upsetting as few as possible. One reason for this of course is the proliferation of capitalism, arguably the best economic theory until the next one. As a result the traditional left wing parties such as Labour, the SPD, the PS or indeed the Democrats, have nothing to argue in favour of, their “viable” alternative having died a death in all but three or four countries of the world. As such they have had to modify their ideologies (new Labour anyone?) in order to find a base of support from which to launch a leadership bid. Equally for traditionally right wing parties like the Conservatives, the CDP, UMP or Republicans the case against voting for the opposition has all but disappeared.
It’s politics Jim, but not as we know it.
So over the next few weeks Obama and McCain will be fighting over details, and as a result the outcome is difficult to predict. Obama has momentum on his side, McCain has pragmatism on his. Both have huge support within their parties, the key battle will therefore be the independent, or undecided voters, and the eventual victor will be the man most capable of luring enough of this group to the polls.
I think my colours have been firmly nailed to the mast over the course of the last year or so regarding who I want to win. And given the recent rock star tour of Europe it seems most of the continent agrees with me, if I could vote I would put a cross next to the name Barak Obama. Except in Texas of course where doing so would somehow result in Bush getting a third term.
So, the question on everone’s lips, is “how can Obama win?” By the way, I am secretly hoping that Mr Obama himself googles that very question over the coming days and ends up here!
In my opinion, the answer is very simple. Three words sum up the ineptitude of the current administration, “Iraq” “Katrina” “Subprime”. In many respects, the election is Obama’s to lose, but as we have seen that means little in US politics. But there is a difference here, and it plays to Obama’s great strength.
All three events named above have one thing in common, namely their impact on “Everyday America” – the people like you and me who go to work everyday to earn a modest living and who in the last 8 years have lost family members to war, homes to natural disaster and financial mismanagement and ultimately faith in the ability of their government to do just that, govern. The very principle of democracy, and let us not forget that the US claims to be the world’s greatest democracy, is that the government is answerable to the people, and should act in their interests. Bush and his cronies have done the very opposite.
If Obama has proven one thing over the last few months, it is his ability to appeal to a large cross section of the population, largely due to his polished skills as an orator and his use of technology as an election tool. But, and here is the point, if Obama can harness these skills and simplify his message to appeal to a yet broader range of people he stands a real chance of winning with ease. And what should that message be? Simple, return America to the land of the free, reignite the American dream and reclaim the land of hope and glory. Sounds cheesy I know, and I’m a bit ashamed for using those terms, but for once I actually believe them.
In a world of economic and military instability, where frankly America’s standing in the world is slipping daily, there is only one way to win the election – freedom. Freedom from trading constraints and protectionism, freedom from military conflict, freedom from the cronyism that has sullied previous administrations, freedom from crippling medical costs, freedom from being seen as the most dangerous rogue state on the planet. Easier than it sounds maybe, but given the current wave of momentum in his favour, if anyone can achieve it…….
Till whenever.....
