A New Beginning for Old Europe...Part 3

Ok, deep breath, here is the third and final part of my little piece about Europe. Apologies if anyone is mad that I've stopped being random for a minute, I do have a serious side as well! In the future though rest assured I will write about unicycling penguins, electric monks and spray paint gospel. Or something. Anyway....

As discussed, Brown is not a naturally charismatic leader in the Blair mould, and is unlikely to become Head Boy of Europe. Angela Merkel on the other hand seems to be on her way to top of the class already, her only problem is that she may not be Chancellor for much longer, depending on the stability of the German Grand Coalition. So it’s there for the taking, and you can bet your bottom Euro that Sarkozy wants it. He’s ambitious where Chirac was complacent, and has the energy and charisma to win over his doubters within Europe. On the other side of the Atlantic however, he hasn’t got a prayer.

The Americans love Blair, he’s the president they always wanted but never had. Think about it, he’s intelligent, charismatic, a genuine leader with a genuine mandate to govern, and doesn’t have a chequered past or present. And he speaks English, not some made up variation laced with a southern drawl. Brown has a chance over there too, should he wish to take it. What he lacks in charisma he can make up for with his intelligence and experience. Sarkozy on the other hand, is French. And despite his love of the US and desire to succeed over there, he will always be seen as such: the Napoleon of the 21st Century. So while he may be able to unite Europe, he will need the UK to get to the States.

And what of Angela Merkel? She’s was famously referred to, in a slightly disparaging manner, by her former boss Helmut Kohl, as “the little girl”, and many thought she would struggle to make the Grand Coalition work…but, it seems the little girl has grown up. She took a leading role at the summit on climate change, was a key factor in the EU Constitution compromise (compromise being a nice word for failure) and in many respects it seems she can do no wrong. The German economy is recovering, unemployment falling (slowly) and the general consensus seems to be positive. But, German voters are notoriously fickle, though not as bad as the French. Coalitions are a common feature of German Government, usually one of the two big parties (SPD & CDU/CSU) has to side with one of the more marginal parties in order to form a government. Currently though there is a Grand Coalition in place, and the question is really whether this will last the full term, or whether it will collapse under the weight of internal opposition. So, from a purely European point of view, despite her success, Merkel may only be a temporary player.


So what does all this mean? Well, Old Europe, as it is often called, isn’t looking quite so old anymore. At various points in history the world has been dominated by various Civilisations, Empires, or more recently, Countries. The American period of dominance is on the slide, not merely economically and militarily, but the whole ideology put forward by the States has taken a battering in recent years. The smart money is on a period of Asian dominance, China, India and to a lesser extent Japan are in a position to collaborate economically to establish a dominant trading area, although to what extent they can dominate politically is difficult to say. But, for those who know me this will come as no surprise, I don’t often go for the smart bets. Currently Europe is in no position, economically or otherwise, to become a dominant world force. But, in the future….