A New Beginning for Old Europe...Part 2

Ok, this is part two (of three), so if you haven't read part one, get cracking!

Brown has had an eventful few days since he took over, car bombs in London and suspected terrorist attacks in Glasgow, hardly the best start to a new job. On the other hand he is fortunate that for the last 10 years the Conservatives have been too busy in-fighting to come up with anything remotely resembling opposition. However, that doesn’t mean he has an easy job. Yes the economy is booming. Yes the Labour party are leading the ratings. Yes his best mate is leader of the Liberal Democrats. But, in order to be successful he has to make changes for the good of the country, not just for the sake of change, otherwise state-school educated Scotsman could lose out to Eton-educated English man. For the first time since I can remember the Conservatives have an electable leader in David Cameron. I’m not saying I would vote for him, but I could. Hague and the other bald fella were awful, plain and simple. Whether Cameron has the policies to win is another question for another day, but one thing is clear, Brown is a leftie at heart, and will lean that way whether his party likes it or not. Elections in the UK are not won on the left or the right, but in the centre, that’s where Blair was clever, and the conservatives were not. If Brown does pull away from the centre with strong social rhetoric and reform (which I believe he should), well then Cameron would be a fool to stay where he is now. Anyway, like I said, that is a topic for another day.

Let’s move now to the question of Europe, and where the UK stands. Under Blair, we were right in the thick of it, every congress, summit, meeting or dinner produced a picture of Blair surrounded by the other European leaders. Brown, although a strong personality in his own right, is not that kind of leader. Does this mean we will move away from Europe? NO. In many respects we are fortunate that despite our size and reluctance to call ourselves European, the EU needs us, both financially and politically.

Gordon Brown also has the advantage that his previous post was that of Chancellor, and it is he who for the last 10 years has kept the question of Euro entry at bay. A different leader, with a different background could easily be seduced by the thought of joining the Euro Club, not so Mr Brown. Another thing in Brown’s favour is that he is not the only new kid in class. European politics has been dominated for the last decade by Blair, Chirac, Schröder and, thankfully to a lesser extent, Berlusconi. Europe now has a new look; Merkel, Sarkozy and Brown, for the next couple of years at least, will dominate. The one to keep an eye on in that list is obviously Nicolas Sarkozy, the new French President. I’ll be honest, I’m not a fan and never have been. I lived in France when he first started to get some attention, mainly for his hardline policies on crime and justice, and took an instant dislike to him. It’s not the policies I dislike specifically, it’s his “I’m right and you’re wrong” attitude. Nevertheless, I strongly believe he is the right man for the France at the moment (that is not a veiled attempt at insulting Mlle. Royal); he has recognised that unless he can reform, and reform quickly, France is in trouble. The reforms will be painful, but they need to be, in many respects France is in a similar position to the UK in the late 70s: high unemployment, social unrest (the French national sport), strong unions and a stagnant economy. However, despite this reformist zeal Sarkozy has protectionist tendencies, and if left unchecked could cause more problems than he solves. Within Europe he will look to take over Blair’s role, both as unofficial leader of the EU and the link with the USA. The first of these he will probably manage, the second will be a lot more difficult.